Welcome to 2025: what lies ahead for social care?
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The year 2024 presented the adult social care sector with a mountain of challenging changes to tackle, and as we now step into 2025, the sector stands at a pivotal stage. As Stephen Kinnock, Minister of State for Care, aptly stated, “Previous attempts to reform adult social care have failed due to a destructive combination of party political point-scoring and short-term thinking”. (REF)
This year presents both opportunities and challenges that will shape the landscape of care services moving forwards. On 3rd January 2025, the UK government appointed Baroness Louise Casey to deliver an independent commission focused on transforming adult social care by building cross-party consensus. It aims to explore sustainable solutions to longstanding challenges within the sector and will be the first step towards the development of a national care service.
We have aimed to outline some of the key challenges faced in 2024 and anticipated solutions for 2025, drawing on the recently announced plans for reform.
Workforce challenges
The social care sector continues to contend with workforce shortages, intensified by increased demand and financial constraints.
Whilst current vacancies in the sector have dropped from 152,000 in 2022/23 to 131,000 in 2023/24, the current vacancy rate still remains a significant proportion higher than that of the wider economy. Further to this, the population of over 65s in the UK is projected to increase by 38% from 10.5 million to 14.5 million before 2040. The increased demand for social care as a result of this is predicted to require an additional 540,000 additional recruits before 2040 which will only contribute to further strain on the sector. (REF) Increased costs and tighter restrictions have also lead to international recruitment no longer providing the lifeline it once did for the sector. (REF)In response to this, the government has plans to expand the national career structure for care staff to include increased career progression and development pathways. The aim being to foster morale and boost retention levels in order to ease some of the workforce strains. By enhancing career development for care workers, the government aims to create a more resilient and efficient social care system that meets the needs of an ageing population. (REF)
Financial strains
The sector is bracing for a financial crisis in 2025, with changes to Employer National Insurance Contributions (ENICs) and National Minimum Wage rates set to increase costs by £2.8 billion, according to the Nuffield Trust. (REF) The 1.2% rise in ENICs and the reduction of the earnings threshold to £5,000 will add £940 million in costs alone.
These pressures exceed the £600 million additional budget funding for social care that was announced in late 2024 and will consume council tax increases intended for broader services. Smaller providers, unable to absorb these costs, risk closure, threatening care services for thousands.
‘Without additional funding from central government, the combined financial impact of the ENIC rise and the new minimum wage level might see not just single providers going out of business but large swathes of the market collapsing.’ (REF)
However, a table initially published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook document included a line titled “compensation [for ENICs] for public sector employers and adult social care,” with a provision of £5.5bn.
This implies that the government is fully aware of the potentially devastating consequences of the budget for social care and the level of support required to stabilise the sector, however the worry will remain unless tangible solutions are introduced.
Further to this, the new policy framework for the Better Care Fund has been announced which aims to support ICSs to work more collaboratively. The £9 billion attributed to this fund will be shared between NHS and local authority funding and will help to encourage accountability for local leaders in the provision of good quality care. (REF)
Tackling technology
The digital transformation journey of the social care sector has been a lengthy ongoing process and continues to throw up multiple issues including availability of funding, restrictive infrastructure, and difficulties in workforce skill development and implementation of new systems.
In response to this, using billions of joint NHS and social care funding, the government intends to develop a shared digital platform to allow up-to-date medical information to be shared between the NHS and care staff.
They also intend to introduce new national standards and wider spread guidance on procurement of the best quality and cost-effective technology for use in care settings. These standards will allow care providers to easily source technologies that are fit for purpose, secure compatible with wider NHS and social care systems. This will also encourage future investment in such technology and allow it to further develop. In
addition to this, guidance will also be provided directly to technology suppliers to allow them to better the growth of their businesses through wiser investments. (REF)
Hospital to home
The issue of 'bed blocking,' where patients medically fit for discharge remain in hospital due to a lack of available social care services, is a major issue facing the NHS at the moment. Whilst this is not an issue directly impacting social care, it is forcing the government’s hand to increase funding towards boosting social care capacity.
The government’s solution to this is an immediate £86 million increase to the Disabled Facilities Grant for the current financial year, doubling the previously announced amount and totalling £711 million. This funding is expected to facilitate home adaptations for an additional 7,800 disabled and elderly individuals, promoting independent living and domiciliary care in place of unnecessary hospital admissions.
Care workers will also be better supported to take on additional duties to deliver health interventions, such as blood pressure checks, meaning people can receive more routine checks and care at home without needing to travel to hospitals or GP practices.
The outlook
To summarise, the government's immediate actions include investing in the advancement of care technology, streamlining processes to ensure more effective use of joint NHS and social care funding, and stabilising the workforce through more established career progression and development pathways.
Through immediate investments and the establishment of an independent commission, the reforms aim to provide high-quality care, support the dedicated workforce, and reduce the burden on the NHS, ultimately improving the quality of life for many individuals.
‘In the first 6 months of this government, work has already begun on stabilising the care sector, investing in prevention, and in carers and care workers. The investment and reforms we’re announcing today will help to modernise social care, get it working more closely with the NHS, and help deliver our Plan for Change.
But our ageing society, with costs of care set to double in the next 20 years, demands longer-term action.’ Wes Streeting, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care (REF)
Whilst the outlook is largely positive, with some promising injections of funding, a lot of underlying issues remain. The long-term plans suggested to resolve these will come as
a frustration to many working within the sector, who have had to battle with them for a long time already.
Article written by Molly Benson, Content Producer
If you are interested in speaking opportunities at our events, please get in touch at m.benson@closerstillmedia.com